The forecast
The next published U.S. CPI-U reading will be above 336.940, the 2026-M09 reading.
The most recent data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the CPI‑U for September 2026 at 336.940, an increase from the previous month’s 334.980. According to a simple momentum rule that forecasts the next reading in the same direction as the latest move, analysts expect the next published figure to remain above 336.940.
This rule is based on the observation that CPI‑U values have moved upward for two consecutive months, indicating a short‑term trend. The upcoming value, scheduled for release in October, will confirm whether the momentum continues.
While the rule provides a straightforward prediction, it does not account for unexpected economic shocks, seasonal adjustments, or revisions that the Bureau may apply. Therefore, although the probability of a reading above 336.940 is high, the actual outcome can still differ due to factors outside the rule’s scope.
Investors and policymakers should keep an eye on the release, noting that a higher-than‑expected CPI could influence interest rate expectations, while a lower figure might dampen inflationary concerns. Ultimately, the next CPI‑U reading will determine the accuracy of the momentum forecast and its implications for market sentiment.
How this will be checked
A one-month momentum rule predicts the next CPI-U index reading in the same direction as the latest move. The next newly published monthly value determines the outcome.