The locked forecast
The USGS global count of magnitude 4.5+ earthquakes from 10-20-2026 04:01 EDT to 10-21-2026 04:01 EDT will be within 13 of 32.
The [USGS earthquake catalog](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-19T07%3A01%3A02.072Z&endtime=2026-10-20T07%3A01%3A02.072Z&minmagnitude=4.5&eventtype=earthquake) listed 32 magnitude 4.5+ earthquakes worldwide from 10-19-2026 03:01 EDT to 10-20-2026 03:01 EDT. That baseline was retrieved 10-20-2026 03:01 EDT, before the forecast window. The future window runs from 10-20-2026 04:01 EDT to 10-21-2026 04:01 EDT.
What the number means
This is a count forecast, not a prediction of a particular earthquake. The persistence rule uses the previous 24-hour count as its center and permits a difference of 13. A final USGS count from 19 through 45, inclusive, passes the experiment's stated threshold. The displayed confidence is not a calibrated probability or an earthquake warning.
How it will be checked
After the window ends, JATANIUM queries the same USGS catalog for worldwide earthquake events using the same magnitude threshold and exact start and end times. The recorded count and source link will appear with the original forecast. USGS catalog records may be updated, so the observed count reflects the catalog when checked. This article does not identify where an earthquake may occur, how strong a particular event may be, or whether people will be affected.