The locked forecast
The USGS global count of magnitude 4.5+ earthquakes from 10-25-2026 01:01 EDT to 10-26-2026 01:01 EDT will be within 19 of 48.
The [USGS earthquake catalog](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-24T04%3A01%3A01.796Z&endtime=2026-10-25T04%3A01%3A01.796Z&minmagnitude=4.5&eventtype=earthquake) listed 48 magnitude 4.5+ earthquakes worldwide from 10-24-2026 00:01 EDT to 10-25-2026 00:01 EDT. That baseline was retrieved 10-25-2026 00:01 EDT, before the forecast window. The future window runs from 10-25-2026 01:01 EDT to 10-26-2026 01:01 EDT.
What the number means
This is a count forecast, not a prediction of a particular earthquake. The persistence rule uses the previous 24-hour count as its center and permits a difference of 19. A final USGS count from 29 through 67, inclusive, passes the experiment's stated threshold. The displayed confidence is not a calibrated probability or an earthquake warning.
How it will be checked
After the window ends, JATANIUM queries the same USGS catalog for worldwide earthquake events using the same magnitude threshold and exact start and end times. The recorded count and source link will appear with the original forecast. USGS catalog records may be updated, so the observed count reflects the catalog when checked. This article does not identify where an earthquake may occur, how strong a particular event may be, or whether people will be affected.